Tues, April 22, 2025:
Trump says he has no intention of firing Fed Chief Powell – Bloomberg
(Excerpted from Bloomberg article:) “Never did,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.” Trump’s National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Friday told reporters that Trump was studying the question of whether he’s able to fire Powell after a series of presidential social media posts and public comments criticizing the Fed. The president unleashed a tirade against Powell last week right before the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2.25%, about half the Fed’s rate of 4.25-4.5%, saying in a post on Truth Social that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”… While the Fed would traditionally cut interest rates to try and buoy the economy in such a situation, Powell and some of his colleagues have signaled the central bank may need to prioritize the inflation side of its dual mandate amid concerns that the levies will also reignite inflation.
US and global economic outlook deteriorates in Trump trade war, IMF says – AP
World Economic Outlook: A Critical Juncture Amid Policy Shifts – April 2025 – IMF
“Global growth is expected to decline and downside risks to intensify as major policy shifts unfold”
Wed, April 16, 2025:
Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed as Trade War Rages; Central bank is wary of a situation where prices rise and growth slumps – WSJ Powell’s speech
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned Wednesday that President Trump’s aggressive new tariffs could both lower growth and raises prices — a dynamic known as stagflation, which is notoriously difficult for the central bank to control. – The Hill
The Federal Reserve can stay patient and wait to see how tariffs and other economic policies of the Trump administration play out before making any changes to interest rates, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday. – AP
Tues, April 15, 2025:
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war; The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day with more than half of that decline coming this month.-WP
Sun, April 13, 2025:
Trump Has Added Risk to the Surest Bet in Global Finance; Shocked by Trump’s trade war, foreign investors are selling U.S. government bonds, long the world’s safe haven. NYT
Fri, April 11, 2025:
Sell-off of ‘safe haven’ US bonds raises fear that confidence in America is fading – AP
Treasuries suddenly trade like risky assets in warning to Trump – Bloomberg
10-year Treasury yield tops 4.5% after surge this week worrying Wall Street and the WH – CNBC
US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level going back to 1952 – CNN
In the usually steady government bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen to about 4.5 percent from less than 4 percent at the end of last week. – NYTimes
Thurs, April 10, 2025:
Fed official calls tariffs ‘stagflationary shock,’ in stark comment on Trump policy – Politico
Tues, April 8, 2025:
As egg prices soared at the supermarket, so did producer profits. A USDA program doled out hundreds of millions in relief payments to big egg companies, even as the largest earned record profits. – WP
Mon, April 7, 2025:
Trump’s trade war threatens a global recession. – Economist
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said most top executives he talks to think the US is already in a recession, warning that stock markets could decline further as Trump’s tariff policies destabilize the world economy. – Bloomberg
Wed, April 2, 2025:
In cutting a quarter of HHS employees, Kennedy and Trump are playing with fire – WP Editorial Bd.
Fri, Mar 28, 2025:
“Americans are not only increasingly fearful of higher inflation—with President Donald Trump set to announce a sweeping spate of tariffs in just a few days—but many more are now dreading rising unemployment. Consumer sentiment tanked 12% this month, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey…. Respondents blamed Trump’s erratic trade war for their jitters, the survey said.” CNN
‘Modest stagflation’ risk climbs for Trump as inflation jumps; Barely two months after Inauguration Day, voters are sounding alarms over the lack of progress on cost-of-living issues. – Politico
Wed, Feb 26, 2025:
Moody’s Warns Policy Decisions Worsen U.S. Fiscal State, Maintains Negative Outlook Rating – PGPF
Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s “Golden Age” is Giving Way to Distress; CEOs and investors are fretting over what they see as whipsaw policy changes and complacency about the risks of recession – WSJ
Mon, March 24, 2025:
Trump plays recession roulette with the American economy – I thought the probability of a downturn was nearly zero. Now one is likely, and we may see stagflation. – WSJ/Blinder
Fri, March 21, 2025:
Don’t Look to the Fed for the Answer to Stagflation; The central bank can’t always come to the rescue. – Bloomberg Editorial Board
Thurs, March 20, 2025:
Trump’s manufacturing dream is a mirage – WP/Zakaria
Stagflation has begun due to tariffs: reduced growth and higher inflation – FT
“Clearly some of it, a good part of it,” is related to the impact of the president’s tariffs, Powell said, adding that such measures “tend to bring growth down and push inflation up.” He also said the Fed did “not need to be in a hurry” to lower interest rates given “unusually elevated” uncertainty. Progress on inflation was “probably delayed for the time being,” Powell added.
Mon, March 17, 2025:
‘Stagflation’ risk puts Federal Reserve in tricky spot as it meets this week – AP
President Donald Trump’s effort to raise tariffs on trading partners around the world will reduce global trade and raise inflation if the levies stay in place, according to a new report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. – OECD
Thurs, March 13, 2025:
Tariff worries rattled Wall Street again Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 into a correction that left it at the lowest in six months. – Bloomberg
Wed, March 12, 2025:
For the first time in CNN polling, a majority disapprove of Trump on the economy – CNN
How changes in economic conditions might affect the federal budget: 2025 to 2035 – CBO
Tues, March 11, 2025:
Effects of federal borrowing on interest rates and Treasury markets – CBO
Fri, March 7, 2025:
Trump’s policies have shaken a once-solid economic outlook – NYT
Consumer confidence has fallen sharply and more businesses are raising alarms over the policy uncertainty by delaying hiring, investment plans – Politico
Tues, March 4, 2025:
Commerce Secretary’s comments raise fears of interference in federal data – NYT
Mon, March 3, 2025:
Dalio warns of US debt crisis within three years – Bloomberg
Sun, Mar 2, 2025:
Trump has glossed over high prices. Republicans worry it will cost them. – WSJ
US Commerce Secretary wants to remove government spending from GDP – Reuters
Fri, Feb 28, 2025:
Tariff threats and uncertainty could weigh on consumers, drag down US economy – AP
Tues, Feb 25, 2025:
Consumer confidence dropped sharply in February – ConferenceBoard
US consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 – Bloomberg
Fri, Feb 21, 2025:
US consumers’ long-term inflation expectations rose to the highest level in almost three decades on concerns President Donald Trump’s tariffs will translate into higher prices. – Bloomberg
Wed, Feb 19, 2025:
Trump says inflation is back: I had nothing to do with it. – The Hill
Fed officials are worried about tariffs’ impact on inflation and see rate cuts on hold – CNBC
Fed officials signaled readiness to hold rates steady amid stubborn inflation and economic policy uncertainty – Bloomberg
Understanding the relationship between changes to fiscal policy and near-term real GDP growth – CBO
Tues, Feb 18, 2025:
A billion-dollar expansion of the biggest US strategic critical-minerals project in Africa faces delays because of the Trump administration’s sweeping foreign-aid freeze, providing a potential opening for rivals like China. – Bloomberg
US Treasury securities have no ideology, which is why the signal they’re sending about faster inflation ahead is so worrisome. – Bloomberg/Winkler
Thurs, Feb 13, 2025:
US wholesale prices rose in January by more than forecast on higher food and energy costs, adding to the growing pile of bad inflation news ahead of more potential tariffs threatened by the Trump administration. – Bloomberg
Trumponomics and Rising Inflation – WSJ Editorial Bd.
Stagflation Warning: Alan S. Blinder, who previously served as a vice chair of the Fed, warned that tariffs and mass deportations — another cornerstone of Mr. Trump’s economic agenda — constitute “stagflationary shocks.” “They’re inflationary, and they’re anti-growth,” he said.– NYT
Wed, Feb 12, 2025:
Kentuckians can’t afford the high cost of Trump’s tariffs – Mitch McConnell
US inflation heats up to 3% for first time since June – CNN
Food and gasoline prices are rising again as US inflation picked up broadly at the start of the year, with economists warning President Donald Trump’s tariffs against China, on steel imports and potentially against huge trading partners Canada and Mexico will only accelerate the trend – Bloomberg
Wed, Feb 11, 2025:
Fed Chair shows little urgency to lower rates – NYT
Wed, Feb 5, 2025:
Store closings may accelerate as retailers face problems far beyond tariffs – WP
Sun, Feb 2, 2025: Senate Banking Comm Dems say Musk’s sidelining key Treasury officials risks U.S. default – Warren
Fri, Jan 31, 2025: US inflation is lingering and tariffs threatened by Trump could nudge prices in wrong direction – AP
Thurs, Jan 30, 2025: Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2024 compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports. Imports increased. – Commerce Dept.
Wed, Jan 29, 2025: Fed holds rates steady, hitting pause after series of cuts – NYTimes
Fri, Jan 17, 2025: IMF sees steady global growth, but warns that Trump tariff, tax and deportation plans cloud outlook – AP
Fri, Jan 17, 2025: Trump announces WH economic policy team – CNBC
Fri, Jan 17, 2025: Cong. Budget Office releases annual budget and economic outlook – CBO
- Deficit: “The federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 is $1.9 trillion. Adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments, the deficit grows to $2.7 trillion by 2035. It amounts to 6.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025… In 2035, the adjusted deficit equals 6.1 percent of GDP—significantly more than the 3.8 percent that deficits have averaged over the past 50 years.”
- Debt: “From 2025 to 2035, debt swells as increases in mandatory spending and interest costs outpace growth in revenues. Federal debt held by the public rises from 100 percent of GDP this year to 118 percent in 2035, surpassing its previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946.”
- Outlays: “In CBO’s projections, rising spending for Social Security and Medicare boosts mandatory outlays, and discretionary spending shrinks as a share of GDP. Net outlays for interest increase as debt mounts. Interest costs exceed outlays for defense from 2025 to 2035 and exceed outlays for nondefense discretionary programs from 2027 to 2035. From 2027 on, interest costs are greater in relation to GDP than at any point since at least 1940 (the first year for which the Office of Management and Budget reports such data).” (emphasis added)
- Revenues: “Revenues total $5.2 trillion, or 17.1 percent of GDP, in 2025. They rise to 18.2 percent of GDP by 2027, in part because of the scheduled expiration of provisions of the 2017 tax act. Revenues decline as a share of GDP over the next two years, falling to 17.9 percent in 2029, but then generally increase, reaching 18.3 percent in 2035.” (Note from the Editor: the 2017 tax cuts are expected to be extended for 10 years, so these revenue projections are high.)
- Economic Growth and Inflation: “Economic growth cools from an estimated 2.3 percent in calendar year 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026 amid higher unemployment and lower inflation…. The overall growth of prices slows slightly in 2025. Inflation as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) falls from an estimated 2.5 percent in 2024 to a rate roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2 percent in 2027 and stabilizes thereafter.” (Note from the Editor: these estimates do not reflect the likely shrinking of the workforce due to anticipated Trump expulsions of undocumented workers, which may reduce economic growth and fuel inflation.)
Thurs, Jan 16, 2025: Why interest rates are rising when the Fed has been cutting rates – AP
Fri, Jan 10, 2025: US Hiring Engine Kept Humming in 2024 with 2.2M job gains – Bloomberg
Wed, Jan 8, 2025: CBO: Reconciling the Official Poverty Measure and CBO’s Distributional Analysis of Household Income – CBO
Wed, Dec 18, 2024: Current View of the Economy – CBO
“This report provides details about CBO’s latest projections of the economy through 2027. Those projections reflect economic developments and current law as of December 4, 2024. Early next year, the agency will publish its budget and economic projections for the full 2025–2035 period.”
Thurs, Dec 12, 2024: Economy faces potential storms in 2025, Moody’s chief economist says – CNBC
Wed, Dec 11, 2024: Inflation gives Fed green light for Dec, yellow for 2025 – Bloomberg
Thurs, Nov 21, 2024: Distribution of Household Income in 2021 – CBO