Wed, Feb 6, 2025:
Store closings may accelerate as retailers face problems far beyond tariffs – WP
Sun, Feb 2, 2025: Senate Banking Comm Dems say Musk’s sidelining key Treasury officials risks U.S. default – Warren
Fri, Jan 31, 2025: US inflation is lingering and tariffs threatened by Trump could nudge prices in wrong direction – AP
Thurs, Jan 30, 2025: Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2024 compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports. Imports increased. – Commerce Dept.
Wed, Jan 29, 2025: Fed holds rates steady, hitting pause after series of cuts – NYTimes
Fri, Jan 17, 2025: IMF sees steady global growth, but warns that Trump tariff, tax and deportation plans cloud outlook – AP
Fri, Jan 17, 2025: Trump announces WH economic policy team – CNBC
Fri, Jan 17, 2025: Cong. Budget Office releases annual budget and economic outlook – CBO
- Deficit: “The federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 is $1.9 trillion. Adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments, the deficit grows to $2.7 trillion by 2035. It amounts to 6.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025… In 2035, the adjusted deficit equals 6.1 percent of GDP—significantly more than the 3.8 percent that deficits have averaged over the past 50 years.”
- Debt: “From 2025 to 2035, debt swells as increases in mandatory spending and interest costs outpace growth in revenues. Federal debt held by the public rises from 100 percent of GDP this year to 118 percent in 2035, surpassing its previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946.”
- Outlays: “In CBO’s projections, rising spending for Social Security and Medicare boosts mandatory outlays, and discretionary spending shrinks as a share of GDP. Net outlays for interest increase as debt mounts. Interest costs exceed outlays for defense from 2025 to 2035 and exceed outlays for nondefense discretionary programs from 2027 to 2035. From 2027 on, interest costs are greater in relation to GDP than at any point since at least 1940 (the first year for which the Office of Management and Budget reports such data).” (emphasis added)
- Revenues: “Revenues total $5.2 trillion, or 17.1 percent of GDP, in 2025. They rise to 18.2 percent of GDP by 2027, in part because of the scheduled expiration of provisions of the 2017 tax act. Revenues decline as a share of GDP over the next two years, falling to 17.9 percent in 2029, but then generally increase, reaching 18.3 percent in 2035.” (Note from the Editor: the 2017 tax cuts are expected to be extended for 10 years, so these revenue projections are high.)
- Economic Growth and Inflation: “Economic growth cools from an estimated 2.3 percent in calendar year 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026 amid higher unemployment and lower inflation…. The overall growth of prices slows slightly in 2025. Inflation as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) falls from an estimated 2.5 percent in 2024 to a rate roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2 percent in 2027 and stabilizes thereafter.” (Note from the Editor: these estimates do not reflect the likely shrinking of the workforce due to anticipated Trump expulsions of undocumented workers, which may reduce economic growth and fuel inflation.)
Thurs, Jan 16, 2025: Why interest rates are rising when the Fed has been cutting rates – AP
Fri, Jan 10, 2025: US Hiring Engine Kept Humming in 2024 with 2.2M job gains – Bloomberg
Wed, Jan 8, 2025: CBO: Reconciling the Official Poverty Measure and CBO’s Distributional Analysis of Household Income – CBO
Wed, Dec 18, 2024: Current View of the Economy – CBO
“This report provides details about CBO’s latest projections of the economy through 2027. Those projections reflect economic developments and current law as of December 4, 2024. Early next year, the agency will publish its budget and economic projections for the full 2025–2035 period.”
Thurs, Dec 12, 2024: Economy faces potential storms in 2025, Moody’s chief economist says – CNBC
Wed, Dec 11, 2024: Inflation gives Fed green light for Dec, yellow for 2025 – Bloomberg
Thurs, Nov 21, 2024: Distribution of Household Income in 2021 – CBO