There are so many nonsense numbers being thrown around in Washington these days, our substack column, Trillions, will each week include a new feature: Budget Fact Check.
Other Fact Checkers: WashPostFactChecker | FactCheck.org | ReutersFactCheck | APFactCheck | Politifact
Thurs, July 31, 2025:
GOP claims that tariff revenues can be used to pay “tariff dividends” to taxpayers or “pay down the national debt.” – WP
- GovBudget: This is utter nonsense. The U.S. is running annual deficits close to $2 trillion per year. New tariff revenues may generate $200 – $300 billion per year (which is uncertain because imports will decrease as tariffs go up). Tariff revenues will simply lower annual deficits by 10 – 15%, and that is before figuring in deficit increases from the tax cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Tariffs don’t give us any “extra revenues” to send back to taxpayers or reduce accumulated public debt. They simply reduce annual deficits by a fractional amount, while accumulated debt continues rising dangerously. Bottom line: sending checks approximating “tariff revenues” to taxpayers would be additional federal spending, financed by federal borrowing, and would increase deficits.
Mon, Jun 9, 2025:
The White House’s through-the-looking-glass budget spin. OMB director ignores current law and relies on budget gimmicks to claim massive deficit reduction. – WP
Thurs, Jun 5, 2025:
Trump’s sales pitch for the “big, beautiful” budget bill doesn’t match the facts – CBS
Mon, Jun 2, 2025:
Mike Johnson’s bogus attack on CBO’s score of the 2017 tax bill – WP
Fri, May 30, 2025:
Are 4.8 million people on Medicaid ‘cheating the system’? House Speaker Mike Johnson relies on a Congressional Budget Office estimate for this claim, but the agency didn’t frame it that way. – WP
Wed, May 28, 2025:
Rubio’s claim that it’s ‘a lie’ that people have died from foreign-aid cuts. The secretary of state rejected convincing evidence documented in news reports and by disease modelers. – WP
Thurs, May 8, 2025:
Lutnick’s economically incoherent and contradictory commentary. The commerce secretary is constantly on television, but his claims don’t make much sense. – WP
Fri, April 25, 2025:
Fact-Checking What Donald Trump Said in His ‘100 Days’ Interview With TIME – TIME
Tues, April 8, 2025:
Vance’s whopper on alleged Social Security fraud; The vice president falsely claims that 40 percent of calls to a retirement program involve fraud. – WP
Thurs, April 3, 2025:
The false things Trump said about tariffs during his announcement; The president relied on claims that have been debunked many times before. – WP
Fri, March 21, 2025:
Trump’s flimsy list claiming VOA distributed “radical propoganda” – WP
Fri, March 14, 2025:
Trump’s fantastical claim of a $200 billion ‘subsidy’ to Canada: No matter how we do the math, the numbers don’t add up. – WP
Wed, March 5, 2025:
Fact-checking 26 suspect claims in Trump’s address to Congress–false claims about border crossings, regulations, the economy, inflation and many other issues – WP
Fri, Feb 28, 2025:
Fact-checking Trump’s claims on amount of US aid to Ukraine – ABC
Golden visa math doesn’t add up to trillions – AXIOS
Wed, Feb 26, 2025:
Trump decries a “scam” USAID contract. It supports a program he started in his first term. – WP
Mon, Feb 24, 2025:
Compensation for federal civilian employees cost about $271 billion in FY 2022 — less than 5 percent of the $6.3 trillion the government spent that year. About 3/5 of compensation was for civilians at DOD, VA, and Homeland Security. – WP & CBO
Sun, Feb 23, 2025:
Budget Fact Check: The imaginary “DOGE Dividend” – FedBudgetGuy.Substack.com
Sat, Feb 22, 2025:
Musk’s DOGE says it has saved $55 billion. Not so fast. A Washington Post analysis found that hundreds of the canceled contracts DOGE listed represent savings of $0 each. – WP
Fri, Feb 21, 2025:
Trump, Musk exaggerate scale of improper social security payments to the dead – FactCheck.org
“Although the (DOGE) website claims the…estimated savings is $55 billion, the reported savings from the ‘wall of receipts’ on the page total about $8.6 billion….More than one-third of the contracts DOGE lists as canceled report $0 in savings…We asked the White House for details about how DOGE reached the $55 billion estimate, but received no additional details.” PolitiFact.com
Thurs, Feb 13, 2025:
Musk misleads on FEMA’s migrant-related payments to New York City – FactCheck.org
Wed, Feb 12, 2025:
Trump says DOGE found tens of billions in savings. Not even close. – WP
Sat, Feb 8, 2025:
Sorting out the Facts on “Waste and Abuse” at USAID – FactCheck.org
Fri, Feb 7, 2025:
The White House’s wildly inaccurate claims about USAID spending – WP
Fri, Jan 24, 2025:
Trump’s gusher of misleading economic statistics at Davos – WP
Mon, Jan 20, 2025:
Fact-checking Trump’s inaugural address – WP
Fact-checking Trumps inaugural address – FactCheck.org